The Layer 1 - scores are based on the following criteria:

Product Vision:

Innovation and performance of AI chipsets and hardware
Alignment with market trends and customer needs
Breadth of product portfolio and use case coverage
Roadmap and future development plans

Ability to Execute

Financial strength and resources
Market presence and adoption
Ecosystem and partnership development
Execution track record and customer satisfaction

Public companies generally have higher Ability to Execute scores due to their greater financial resources, market presence, and established ecosystems. NVIDIA, TSMC, and Intel lead the pack in terms of both Product Vision and Ability to Execute, thanks to their cutting-edge AI hardware offerings and strong market positions.

Private companies, while often exhibiting strong Product Vision, may have lower Ability to Execute scores due to their relatively limited financial resources and market presence compared to their public counterparts. However, companies like Graphcore, Cerebras, and SambaNova are making significant strides in developing innovative AI hardware solutions and are attracting substantial investment from venture capital firms.

Please note that these scores are based on my assessment of the available information and may be subjective. The actual scores might vary depending on the specific criteria used and the latest market developments.

Bottom Line

The AI Chips & Hardware Infrastructure layer is a highly competitive and rapidly evolving market, with a mix of established public companies and innovative private startups vying for leadership. Based on the Product Vision and Ability to Execute scores, the following categories emerge:

Leaders

NVIDIA, TSMC, and Intel are the clear leaders in the AI hardware market, with high scores in both Product Vision and Ability to Execute. These companies have a strong track record of delivering cutting-edge AI hardware solutions, robust ecosystems, and significant financial resources to maintain their market dominance.

Visionaries

Graphcore, Cerebras, and SambaNova stand out as visionaries in the AI hardware space, with impressive Product Vision scores. These companies are pushing the boundaries of AI hardware innovation, developing novel architectures and solutions that cater to the growing demands of AI workloads. While their Ability to Execute scores may be lower than the public leaders, these visionaries are attracting significant interest and investment from the venture capital community.

Niche Players

Companies like Groq, Mythic AI, Cambricon, Wave Computing, and Horizon Robotics can be considered niche players in the AI hardware market. These companies offer specialized solutions for specific use cases or target markets, such as edge computing, IoT devices, or graph neural networks. While they may not have the broad market presence or financial resources of the leaders, these niche players can still capture significant value by addressing specific customer needs and market segments.

Consolidators

The AI hardware market is likely to see consolidation in the coming years, driven by the rapid pace of innovation, high development costs, and the need for scale. Public companies with strong financial positions and broad product portfolios, such as NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD, are well-positioned to be consolidators in this market. These companies may acquire smaller, specialized AI hardware startups to enhance their product offerings, gain access to new technologies, and expand their market presence.

Additionally, some of the visionaries and niche players may become attractive acquisition targets for the consolidators as they mature and demonstrate strong market traction. For example, Intel's acquisition of Habana Labs highlights the potential for consolidation in this space.

Overall, the AI Chips & Hardware Infrastructure layer is poised for significant growth and innovation, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance AI hardware across various industries. The leaders, visionaries, and niche players will all play crucial roles in shaping the future of this market, while the consolidators will drive the industry towards greater scale and efficiency.

Ranked Vendor List:

NVIDIA (NVDA) - 9.8
TSMC (TSM) - 9.4
Intel (INTC) - 9.0
AMD (AMD) - 9.0
Xilinx (AMD) - 8.6
Marvell (MRVL) - 8.6
Broadcom (AVGO) - 8.5
Graphcore (Private) - 8.5
Qualcomm (QCOM) - 8.3
Cerebras (Private) - 8.2
SambaNova (Private) - 8.2
Ampere (Private) - 8.1
Habana (Intel) - 8.0
Horizon (Private) - 7.9
Mythic AI (Private) - 7.8
Groq (Private) - 7.8
Synaptics (SYNA) - 7.7
Cambricon (Private) - 7.7
Microchip (MCHP) - 7.6
Wave Computing (Private) - 7.3

The ranking is based on the sum of the Product Vision and Ability to Execute scores for each vendor. In cases where the total scores are tied, the vendors are ranked alphabetically.