Event Note: Interest Rates
Recommended soundtrack: The Sky is crying, Elmore James
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Update Note, dig dis: Interest Rate Direshun Federal Reserve
Governo' Michelle Bowman, said Friday dat it’s possible interest rates may gotss'ta move higha' t'control inflashun, rada' dan de cuts ha' fellow officials gotss' indicated are likesly and dat da damn market be 'spectin'.Notin' some numba' uh potential upside risks t'inflashun, Bowman said policymakers need t'be careful not t'ease policy too quickly. Slap mah fro. Right On!“While it aint mah' baseline outlook, ah' continue t'see da damn risk dat at some future meetin' we may need t'increase da damn policy rate furda' should progress on inflashun stall o' even reverse,” she said in prepared remarks fo' some speech t'some group uh Fed watchers in New Yo'k. “Reducin' our policy rate too soon o' too quickly could result in some rebound in inflashun, requirin' furda' future policy rate increases t'return inflashun t'2 puh'cent ova' de longa' run. 'S coo', bro.”As some memba' uh de Bo'd uh Governo's, Bowman be some puh'manent votin' memba' uh de rate-settin' Federal Open Market Committee. What it is, Mama. Right On! Since takin' office in late 2018, ha' public speeches gotss' put ha' on de mo'e hawkish side uh de FOMC, meanin' she favo's some mo'e aggressive posture toward containin' inflashun. 'S coo', bro.Bowman said ha' most likesly outcome remains dat “it gotss'ta eventually become appropriate t'lower” rates, dough she noted dat “we are still not yet at da damn point” uh cuttin' as “I continue t'see some numba' uh upside risks t'inflashun. 'S coo', bro.”De speech, t'de Shadow Open Market Committee, comes wid markets on edge about da damn near-term future uh Fed policy. Slap mah fro. Right On! Statements dis week fum multiple officials, includin' Cfro Jerome Posheeit, gotss' indicated some cautious approach t'cuttin' rates. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, an FOMC voter, told CNBC he likesly sees plum one reducshun dis year, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated no cuts could happen if inflashun duz not decelerate furder. Ah be baaad...Futures traders are pricin' in dree cuts dis year, dough it gotss'ta become some close call between June and July fo' when dey start. FOMC members in March also penciled in dree cuts dis year, dough one unidentified official in de “dot plot” indicated no decreases until 2026 and dere wuz considerable dispuh'sion oderwise about how aggressively de central bank would move. What it is, Mama. Right On!“Given de risks and uncertainties regardin' mah' economic outlook, ah' gotss'ta continue t'watch de data closely as ah' assess de appropriate alley uh monetary policy, and ah' gotss'ta remain cautious in mah' approach t'considerin' future changes in de stance uh policy,” Bowman said.Weighin' inflashun risks, she said dat supply-side improvements dat helped brin' numbers waaay down dis year may not gotss' da damn same impact goin' fo'ward. Mo'eover, she cited geopolitical risks and fiscal stimulus as oda' upside hazards, along wid stubbo'nly higha' housin' prices and labo' market tightness.“Inflashun eyeballin's ova' de past two monds suggest progress may be uneven o' slowa' goin' fo'ward, especially fo' co'e services,” Bowman said.Fed officials gotss'ta get deir next look at inflashun data Wednesday, when de Labo' Department releases de March consuma' price index repo't.
